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Copyright, The Times Mirror Company; Los Angeles
Times 1988all Rights reserved)
Time for the veepstakes, the only handicapping left
between now and the summer conventions. It's harmless, and usually
irrelevant to the outcome-though perhaps not this year.
There are essentially two traditional rules: pick a
person who hurts the presidential nominee the least, and who can "deliver"
a state or help in a region where the top half of the ticket is weak. This
year could be different-the selection of the running-mate could tip the
hand of the entire campaign strategy-Northern, Southwestern, whatever. And
in a close race-as this year shapes up to be-the choice could make a real
difference. Vice President George Bush has an advantage because of
convention order: He gets four weeks to poll and plan after Gov. Michael
S. Dukakis shows his hole card, his veep choice.
The Republican Party is blessed with quite a few
well-qualified governors, congressional leaders and appointed
officeholders. I hate making lists-you always leave someone out-but here
are the possibilities most-mentioned-plus a few others.
Let's start alphabetically with some governors-a level
of public office that Bush's resume does not include.
-Former Gov. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee. A political
moderate and good administrator. His border-state residence could help
hold the upper South-Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia-against a
Dukakis-John Glenn ticket.
-Gov. Carroll A. Campbell Jr. of South Carolina. A
cultural and social conservative, a deep Southerner. Good choice to
counter a Dukakis-Sam Nunn Democratic ticket or just shore up the South.
-Gov. George Deukmejian. With California's 47 electoral
votes, the biggest prize of all. The positives: Deukmejian, a
conservative, has carried California twice, remains popular, and would be
helpful in the state and elsewhere. The negative: He would hand his job
over to a Democrat-Lt. Governor Leo McCarthy, now trailing in a race
against Republican Sen. Pete Wilson. The GOP would then lose control of
the state two years before redistricting of both legislative houses and
about 50 congressional seats. But holding the White House may be more
important than the Statehouse-at least to non-California GOP-and
Deukmejian recently said one never says never.
-Gov. Thomas H. Kean of New Jersey. An efficient
manager and big electoral leader in a state that often goes Democratic at
the state and local level. A drawback here-the Eastern private education,
and the accent he and Bush share. Would have made a great candidate on a
Bob Dole ticket.
-Gov. James R. Thompson of Illinois. Well known and
available-his lieutenant governor is Republican. Has been elected governor
of a large "swing state" four times and knows how to deal with fellow
politicians. Would be helpful if a strategy develops to take away one big
state that Dukakis needs.
Polls, nationally and state-by- state, show a "gender
gap"-women going much more Democratic than men-again this year. Some
suggest a woman vice presidential candidate on the GOP ticket will be a
good idea. Here again, Republicans have good prospects.
-Sen. Nancy L. Kassebaum of Kansas. A 10-year Senate
veteran and Alf Landon's daughter to boot. She would help with farmers,
small businessmen (she was a local broadcasting executive), the Midwest
and elsewhere.
Former U.N. Ambassador Jeane J. Kirkpatrick would help
with conservatives-the fervor factor, not their votes.
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor-who has
said she isn't interested-is qualified, but perhaps should be taken at her
word. It seems easier to elect Republican vice presidents than to get a
Republican on the court.
One also has to include Elizabeth H. Dole, former
secretary of transportation. A North Carolina native, she'd help there and
elsewhere-including Kansas where she has marital ties. Any of these women
would help by themselves, or when compared to the last woman nominated for
veep.
We must also include congressmen.
Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas, Senate GOP leader and
runner-up in this year's short (for the Republicans) nomination process,
would help greatly in the West. He got nearly 13% in the June 7 California
primary-two and one-half months after he dropped out of the race. Whether
he would take it, or Bush would offer it are legitimate questions.
However, Bush offering the second spot to the runner-up says a
lot-particularly since Dukakis will never offer his second slot to the
runner-up, Jesse Jackson.
Other Hill mentionables include Rep. Jack Kemp of New
York. Well known and liked by most conservatives, particularly the social
and international wings. He would add some pizazz and a bit of glamour.
Probably could not help with New York though, at this stage.
The Midwest has another possibility, Sen. Kit Bond of
Missouri, who also served two terms as governor. He is a proven
administrator, and has gotten elected statewide four times in a swing, but
basically Democratic state. Like Dukakis, he lost his first reelection bid
for governor and came back-you learn from that.
Wyoming, with its small population, offers two
possibilities. Sen. Alan K. Simpson, resident wit and GOP whip of the
Senate, would be an interesting choice. Bright, hard working, tenacious
and well liked-in short, a pro. He has grown in his 10-year Senate career,
earning wide respect for diligence and good humor. Rep. Richard B. Cheney
is another pro. At 47, he's been in the House 10 years, and was Gerald R.
Ford's White House chief of staff before that.
While we are still in the mountain time zone, let's
look at Sen. John McCain of Arizona. He is a former congressman and a
naval aviator who spent seven years in the Hanoi Hilton as a P.O.W. It's
hard to say he hasn't paid his dues.
This partial listing's main feature is breadth. Each
person brings something to a Bush ticket-now it's up to the candidate. But
remember, Bush doesn't-and shouldn't-have to make his call until Dukakis
shows his hand.
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| DRAWING: NANCY DONIGER / for The Times |
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