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Copyright, The Times Mirror Company; Los Angeles
Times 1988all Rights reserved)
Some pundits talk about a stature gap between Vice
President George Bush and Gov. Michael S. Dukakis and how Dukakis must do
something to increase his "presidential" presence. Something more than
winning the primaries and locking up the nomination, I suppose.
Yet the whole issue is somewhat specious. You don't
assume stature or pretend stature-like beauty, it's in the eye of the
beholder. Stature is conferred by a political party when its voters
believe a candidate can win. It is gained by winning primaries, looking
good in the polls and not putting your foot in your mouth.
Stature is a quality having little to do with physical
height (if it did, Jimmy Carter would have lost to President Ford). It has
more to do with depth. In a couple of weeks the last four primaries will
be held, including California, and the delegate totals will be added up
for keeps. They will show Dukakis "over the top," a result of his wins
that day and the carefully orchestrated dribs and drabs of "superdelegates,"
plus other delegates who lost their horses earlier in the process and are
now going to the "Duke" camp every day.
Then we enter phase one of the fall campaign, the six
weeks from the day after the last primaries to nomination night at the
Democratic Convention. This begins Dukakis' main chance to show, not gain,
stature the old-fashioned way: having it bestowed upon him by party
leaders and the media; taking presidential actions like picking the next
vice president of the United States and laying out themes for the future.
The candidate moves slowly around the country surrounded by this
democracy's only trapping of monarchy, a full Secret Service entourage
with lights, bells, whistles and strong-looking guys too young for the
hearing aids they wear, guys who talk up their coat sleeves a lot.
These are the weeks to play up your strength. Dukakis'
strength is cool, dispassionate decision-making. His first decision will
be his running mate, to be weighed cleanly and chosen decisively.
Consultation with others, including the Rev. Jesse Jackson, is
appropriate, but he must avoid even the appearance of bargaining or
bartering. Remember the hapless performance of Walter F. Mondale going
from one group to another in the early summer of 1984, becoming more and
more attached to the tar baby of expediency with each promise made or
hinted.
Next comes the Atlanta coronation-five days of captive
media, no real fights, lots of unity, a prime time acceptance speech-in
short, a campaign manager's dream. A well-run Republican convention is
expected, a calm Democratic convention is a plus. Once crowned as a
possible President, a nominee has all the stature a candidate could
need-or want.
Dukakis' campaign has been helped by the continuing
second-best campaign of Jackson. Next to the minister's record and
pronouncements, Dukakis looks moderate and reasonable. Bush could have
been helped by the continued threat from a "hot" polarizing candidate like
Pat Robertson. Sometimes clearing the field too early makes a good
candidate look more like a shadow boxer than a fighter; it sometimes also
knocks you off the front page.
While Dukakis may want to believe that his later
primary victories were caused by voters' careful reading of his position
papers, they had more to do with Dukakis being the last guy left standing
in the ring with Jackson. Mere survival, however, does not explain his
poll standings in trial heats with the vice president. If the poll figures
do not absolutely predict a change in partisan control of the White House,
they absolutely do predict a clear willingness among the American
electorate to consider making such a change.
Good show so far, Mike, but now it starts to get
interesting-the veep, the platform and putting together a Northern,
Southern, or whatever strategy that can win a majority of the electoral
college in November. This is decision time.
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| DRAWING: , Nancy Ohanian / for The Times |
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