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Copyright, The Times Mirror Company; Los Angeles
Times 1988all Rights reserved)
Iowa may be where the corn grows tall but that state's
Democrats didn't do much to separate the wheat from the chaff this year.
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri finished first followed by Illinois
Sen. Paul Simon and Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis-with Jesse
Jackson and Bruce Babbitt trailing, leaving Gary Hart and Sen. Albert Gore
Jr. of Tennessee just blips on the radar screen. Yet five guys are still
alive to one degree or another and that means the Iowa "cut" for New
Hampshire was not sharp. The outcome was blurred.
First the goodbys-one quick, one fond. Goodby Gary
Hart, the people got your drift last May and gave you the message Monday
that it's time to go.
Former Arizona Gov. Babbitt finished fifth behind Jesse
Jackson, with about 6%. That's not enough to go on very far. His end will
come later this week after New Hampshire. Babbitt truly was the candidate
of challenging ideas-such as paying the country's bills and ending the
hayride. Unfortunately for him and the country, fiscally tough solutions
do not appear to sell well in Democratic caucuses. As Al Smith said in
referring to the New Deal and the reelection of Franklin D.
Roosevelt-"They don't shoot Santa Claus." Unfortunately, they do shoot the
grinch. Good luck Bruce, you deserved better.
Now to the survivors and a few thoughts on each.
Gephardt: Hats off. Gephardt stuck to his game
plan-combined organization and money with a message-and won. He went on to
New Hampshire trying to come as close to Dukakis as possible. He will get
a fair boost in fund-raising, but with a big Republican story coming out
of Iowa, particularly the Robertson surprise, he will not get the bounce
Hart got four years ago. If he finishes a strong second-or even just
second to Dukakis in New Hampshire-he is set up to be a player for Super
Tuesday, the Midwest spring contests and beyond.
Simon: Another near Lazarus act. Dropping like a stone
two weeks ago, his free-fall was stopped and he rose again, probably on
the strength of the Des Moines Register endorsement. He ran well among
traditional tax-and-spend Democrats and got second place. Money will be a
problem for Simon in New Hampshire and beyond. Dukakis will win New
Hampshire. Third or worse in New Hampshire will not be enough for Simon to
go on through Super Tuesday. The March 15 primary in Illinois, his home
state, will be more of a last hurrah than a "rebirth."
Dukakis: He goes home to New England for as close to a
sure win as they have in this year's process. Third in Iowa ain't bad, but
it's not great either for someone who had to settle for the bronze when he
was going for the gold. No matter what he says now, Dukakis was trying for
a quick one-two knockout of the field with wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.
However, with only 9 points covering the first three Iowa finishers, he
still looks OK for a win in New Hampshire and his third-place Iowa finish
will help him defend against raised "neighbor" expectations. Still, he has
no real message yet, certainly none with feeling.
Jackson: He would have been alive even if he had run
worse than fourth. He doesn't have to play by conventional pol rules-yet
he did quite well, increasing his yield fivefold over his 1984 showing.
Jackson got about 10% of the white vote. Give him 10% of the white vote in
the South on Super Tuesday on top of the region's large black vote, and
Jackson will need 18-wheelers to haul his convention delegates to Atlanta.
He is in this one to stay, by anyone's rules.
Gore: He made a tactical decision to duck Iowa and play
for keeps on Super Tuesday, a wise move then and maybe even now. However,
Gephardt's first-place finish was the worst possible scenario for Gore. A
Simon or Dukakis win would have eliminated Gephardt and removed the only
candidate endorsed by more important Southern politicians than Gore.
Although Gephardt is not from Dixie, he can sell there if he runs well in
New Hampshire and can endanger Gore's base. Yet, all in all, Gore was wise
to bypass Iowa; running fifth or sixth would have been far worse than
ducking.
Dizzyingly, the chase goes on, not just to New
Hampshire or Super Tuesday, but to Atlanta in July. With five guys alive
today, and four probably hanging in there, it will be worth watching. |